Thursday, 4 April 2013

Football Sim: Early predictions for 6/7/8 April 2013

Let's start this one with a quick recap because I haven't done a review for a couple of weeks. Last week wasn't bad. The week before the international break was the model's first loss, but only a small one.

Not enough detail? OK, let's round up the betting at least.

Since I've been calling bets on Wallpapering Fog before the games and playing £10 stakes every game, we've had:

2 March:    + £26.30
9 March:    + £3.30
16 March:  - £3.50
30 March:  + £17.23

Total:   + £43.33

Which as a newbie who'd only ever placed one football bet before February this year, I reckon is not too bad! (Sean Devine didn't score against Man U by the way. Who knew?) I've been tweeting a bit today about projections for what wins would have been if the model had been in place last season too and they're quite promising. Here if you're interested.

Predictions are early this week because I plan to be up a Lake District mountain with a paraglider on Saturday and Sunday. Can't wait, but football first. Here they are then...

Two notable ones this week. The model's more confident than the market odds that the red half of Manchester will be happy on Monday night and it also thinks that West Brom will beat Arsenal.

The Arsenal one's quite interesting. Giroud's away stats are less than impressive and it's really not helping Arsenal's chances of scoring, but the model's also not sure what to do with Rosicky (assuming he starts - line-ups from here) because he hasn't played much this season. I artificially gave him some very healthy shooting stats though, re-ran the model and Arsenal still lost with the chances being a little closer, so I'm going with it as a prediction.

Here are the calls for betting:

West Brom v Arsenal - Home Win
Stoke v Villa - Home Win
Chelsea v Sunderland - Home Win
Spurs v Everton - Home Win
Newcastle v Fulham - Home Win
Liverpool v West Ham - Home Win
Man U v Man City - Home Win
Norwich v Swansea - Draw
QPR v Wigan - Draw
Reading v Southampton - Away Win

By the way, I know I list Home / Away / Draw in the table above and nobody else does it in that order. It's even started annoying me now, so I'll change it for next week!


Anonymous said...

Hi Neil - intrigued by this, might even place a bet myself. I am also not a betting man, but you seem to be adding some real science in place of closing my eyes and seeing where the pen drops!

Neil C said...

Did you have a pop Sam? On the £10 stakes model it's ending at least £23 up for the weekend, with Man U still to play.