Saturday, 20 April 2013

Football model: Predictions for 20 April

Quick post to log the predictions for this week. There always one that sticks out and this week it's Newcastle! There's no way that's a sensible percentage, but the model uses past shooting frequency and conversion stats and Newcastle's away numbers for the starting line-up on Fantasy Football Scout are less than impressive...

One of the improvements I'm working on is to input better data when we have limited experience (e.g. what shot conversion rate do you give a player who's never scored?) and that should go some way to moderating extreme results like this.

Here are the percentages:

If you're having a flutter, we've got...

Fulham v Arsenal - Draw
Norwich v Reading - Home win
QPR v Stoke - Draw
Sunderland v Everton - Away win
Swansea v Southampton - Home win
West Brom v Newcastle - Home win
West Ham v Wigan - Home win
Tottenham v Man City - Away win
Liverpool v Chelsea - Home win
Man U v Villa - Home win


Angana said...

Hi Neil,

I like your football prediction posts and that's why I'm reaching out to you. I have a football prediction website, which I would love to get some feedback on.

Can I email you to give you some details.



Neil C said...

Sure. I'd rather not post an email address here or I'll get spammed to death, but feel free to tweet me - @data_monkey