Saturday, 9 March 2013

Football Sim: Predictions for 9/10 March 2013

Looks like potentially a tricky set of fixtures to call this week as many are close to 'standard' home/away/draw percentages. If I get the chance, I'll re-post before 3.00 using the actual starting line-ups to simulate, but for now I've taken them from Fantasy Football Scout as usual.

We're fairly close to the market odds everywhere, with the exception of Sunderland, where my model is predicting an away win against QPR. Harry dropped Taarabt last week and Zamora may be coming back from injury so the QPR line-up is a little in doubt. Let's see if we can squeeze in that rerun of the model before kick off.

For betting, We've got some fairly clear over-indexes to pick (see last week for an explanation) and a couple of games where it's a toss-up between an away win and a draw.

Clear ones first:

Reading v Villa - Away Win
Liverpool v Tottenham - Home Win
Newcastle v Stoke - Home Win
QPR v Sunderland - Away Win

And the close calls:

Norwich v Southampton
West Brom v Swansea

I'm going for draws in those two, because it's an incredibly close call between draws and away wins and we'll get better odds on draws.

Neck stuck out. See you later!

No comments: