Friday, 15 March 2013

Football Sim: Predictions for 16/17 March 2013

Here we go again...

No big preamble this time, if you're reading this then you probably know where these forecasts come from by now (I like calling them forecasts, it sounds more scientific than predictions.) If you don't, have a read of these posts.

Here are the percentage chances for this week's games:

A few obviously stick out - Everton and Swansea to win are interesting, but I think both plausible (though maybe not at those percentages) and West Brom to beat Stoke, I'm not sure I trust because the model doesn't really seem to understand how Stoke get as many points as they do. Reasons for that are probably fairly obvious and to do with Stoke's style of play, but I haven't tried to deal with it yet.

And my betting choices:

Swansea v Arsenal - Home Win
Villa v QPR - Draw
Chelsea v West Ham - Home Win
Everton v Man City - Home Win
Tottenham v Fulham - Home Win
Southampton v Liverpool - Away Win
Man U v Reading - Home Win
Wigan v Newcastle - Draw
Stoke v West Brom - Away Win
Sunderland v Norwich - Draw

On the whole, the model's been running at around 50% of results called correctly and slowly making money through betting simple singles at the same stake on each prediction. Every time I try to mess about with that basic approach, it does worse, so I'm sticking to it for now.

I did make some improvements to the model this week, but overall it's made only a very small difference to accuracy, which was a bit disappointing. I may go for incorporating form next, rather than using each player's average stats across the whole season all the time, but it's going to a be a busy week at work so that may have to wait...

Same as last week, I might also tweet an update when the starting line-ups are confirmed - @data_monkey if you're interested. Although last week, the original predictions did marginally better than the update, due to Holt's penalty miss. Maybe go with these as they are!

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