Saturday, 11 May 2013

Football Sim: Predictions for 11/12 May

Nearly time for a summer of model development, but here are the predictions for this weekend...

Erm, Chelsea? Really?

Yes, really. This one's interesting.

Fantasy football scout has Chelsea starting with the this line-up:

Petr Cech
C├ęsar Azpilicueta
David Luiz Moreira Marinho
John Terry
Ashley Cole
Oscar dos Santos Emboada Junior
Frank Lampard
Ramires Santos do Nascimento
Victor Moses
John Obi Mikel
Demba Ba

With last week's starting eleven for Chelsea, we'd have Villa: 34% Chelsea: 41% Draw: 24%. Either way I've got it closer than the bookies, but this is one of the good things about the flexibility of an agent based model. Mine still needs a hell of a lot of work, but it's why if I was a manager, I'd want a resource like this available to simulate games ahead of the event. How much squad rotation can you get away with and still be confident of winning?

For betting:

Villa v Chelsea - We'll see when the starting lineups are announced. Might tweet it. Might be out windsurfing (it's not like this is a proper job...)

Stoke v Spurs - Home win
Everton v West Ham - Home win
Fulham v Liverpool - Away win
Norwich v West Brom - Home win
QPR v Newcastle - Draw
Sunderland v Southampton - Draw
Man United v Swansea - Home win

Yes, I know Stoke's a bit, erm... controversial too. We got Swansea in mid-week at 4.75 though. It does happen.

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